Unraveling Real Estate in 2011…

Unraveling Real Estate in 2011…

The broad brush used by ‘Talking Heads’ to paint a macro picture of real estate has little bearing on local micro markets and is worthless to the average consumer. All real estate is local and as such only local data should be considered.  In fact most of the national and regional media reports, analysis and opinion about real estate is reporting for the sake of reporting, and it is basically meaningless to the general public. When fed to the public it’s a disservice because it just creates so much confusion.

Sub-areas or markets offer another example of the differences, there being no similarities between Lower Mainland real estate on the Westside and the Tri-cities (although a friend suggested we might be getting Westside refugees here). So when the data for these two areas are lumped together and reported with all of the other sub-areas, how is this going to help a seller or buyer contemplating Coquitlam real estate?

At times even local reporting is silly, for instance if it’s reported that Port Moody real estate sales are up compared to last year, what are you going to glean from this crumb? If there were an explanation as to its value then perhaps it would be worthwhile reporting.

The REBGV provides statistics and commentary based on MLS supply and demand, or listings versus sales. One problem with this information is that it is missing about 30% of the total sales. Most new homes aren’t sold through the MLS, and neither are private sales (known as FSBO’s).  So the partial picture of demand that is being painted is, in my opinion, useless.

Is it any wonder then those economists from the major financial institutions including, CMHC, BCREA, etc, are almost always wrong, and constantly have to adjust their forecasts?  Does the news media keep returning to these same lousy sources that cannot be relied upon, create confusion and mislead the public, because it’s cheap?

It seems everyone has an opinion on our local real estate market; well guess what they probably relied on to develop much of it from? Yes, those same unreliable sources being reported! Consequently, eager home buyers and nervous sellers are paralyzed with a steady bombardment of conflicting news and views, and it is really bad news when used for sugarcoating bad news.

Anyway, I know you’ve heard much of it from me before so I’ll get off my soapbox.

1 thought on “Unraveling Real Estate in 2011…”

  1. …unlike most others, and for the reasons above, I’m certainly not going to reproduce or bother posting the monthly statistics distributed each month by the various local real estate bodies. If I’m dealing with a client on a particular area they will receive hyper local up to the minute market information that day. Anything else is “fluff” and wasting their time!


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